For example, doctors use a version of it-“when you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras”-to ensure they go for the simplest diagnosis to explain their patient’s symptoms. Occam’s razor may be useful in very specific scientific settings. It may also be used as a way to gloss over complex but crucial components in an argument, thus falling prey to confirmation bias-our natural tendency to interpret information in a way that affirms our prior hypotheses. The biggest mistake people make with this mental model is to assume it reasonable to transpose a philosophico-scientific principle to messy day-to-day challenges. While theorists may thrive for mathematical beauty, it makes no sense to go for the most elegant solution when trying to figure out a real-life problem. Occam’s razor is a conservative mental model, which may prevent you from exploring complex but interesting solutions. You cannot run A/B testing for your life and there is no alternative for critical and logical thinking. Second, in a real-world setting, it’s impossible to compare explanations and solutions with all other things being equal. But this does not mean that Nature might not obey a more complex theory.” In The Meaning of Relativity, Einstein stated: “In my opinion the theory here is the logically simplest relativistic field theory that is at all possible. (Mach also once said “I don’t believe that atoms exist!” to which Einstein replied with a demonstration that marked a turning point in the acceptance of atomic theory-these two must have been great friends)

Einstein later published a paper on brownian motion, the random motion of particles suspended in a fluid-a more complex theory-which confirmed the reality of molecules.

In fact, many scientific theories have become more complex over time, as researchers would uncover new data.įor example, Ernst Mach-who advocated for a version of Occam’s razor, which he called the Principle of Economy-claimed that molecules didn’t exist because they were too small to detect directly. The problems?įirst, there is actually no empirical evidence that the world is simple, and therefore simpler solutions are more likely to be correct. It is used everyday by scientists to choose between competing theories. It says that other things being equal, simpler explanations are generally better than more complex ones. Occam’s razor is pretty easy to understand. Conflating simple with correct can be dangerous, so it’s important to know the limitations of this approach. Both our minds and the world are complex machines which cannot be grasped by applying such a simplistic approach to decision making. We don’t want to make things more complicated than they need be.

By slicing and leaving aside more complex theories, it metaphorically acts as a razor. Why is Occam’s razor called a razor? This mental model cuts away competing solutions, leaving the simplest-and supposedly most likely-explanation in place.

But, before we move on, let’s address your burning question. Occam’s razor is a popular mental model, to say the least. William of Ockham’s idea later became the first rule of philosophical reasoning in Principia Mathematica by Isaac Newton: “We are to admit no more causes of natural things than such as are both true and sufficient to explain their appearances.” Even Albert Einstein created his own, more nuanced version of Occam’s razor: “It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of a single datum of experience.” Aristotle wrote: “Other things being equal, we may assume the superiority of the demonstration which derives from fewer postulates or hypotheses.” Ptolemy stated: “We consider it a good principle to explain the phenomena by the simplest hypothesis possible.” While William of Ockham is often credited with the formulation of this mental model, it’s an ancient one. Also called the “law of parsimony”, Occam’s razor is a mental model which states that “it is futile to do with more what can be done with fewer”-in other words, the simplest explanation is most likely the right one.

Ockham healthcare